Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.544033 1.606500 1.671358 1.743966 1.823277 1.907617 2.004537
2025-12-21 1.457109 1.538667 1.626003 1.727151 1.841945 1.969269 2.122751
2025-12-28 1.414207 1.510929 1.617101 1.743562 1.891855 2.062602 2.277771
2026-01-04 1.385767 1.495375 1.618289 1.768375 1.949698 2.165976 2.450693
2026-01-11 1.346033 1.463537 1.597482 1.764254 1.970624 2.224076 2.570521
2026-01-18 1.315503 1.440110 1.584282 1.767041 1.998365 2.290625 2.705480
2026-01-25 1.271820 1.398807 1.547247 1.737804 1.982919 2.299070 2.760763
2026-02-01 1.242051 1.372652 1.526950 1.727660 1.990308 2.336762 2.859006
2026-02-08 1.213618 1.346823 1.505660 1.714692 1.992458 2.366421 2.947129
2026-02-15 1.187279 1.322479 1.485034 1.701219 1.992553 2.392328 3.031017
2026-02-22 1.171025 1.309827 1.478282 1.705024 2.015604 2.451498 3.172391
2026-03-01 1.140830 1.278906 1.447325 1.675500 1.990850 2.439025 3.195010
2026-03-08 1.119833 1.259466 1.431044 1.665746 1.994465 2.470588 3.298613
2026-03-15 1.097802 1.238050 1.411453 1.650584 1.989339 2.488142 3.379519
2026-03-22 1.089912 1.234190 1.414246 1.665648 2.028101 2.575808 3.598801
2026-03-29 1.085622 1.234660 1.422510 1.688314 2.078967 2.686684 3.881984
2026-04-05 1.071108 1.221518 1.412305 1.684603 2.089882 2.732756 4.043632
2026-04-12 1.059815 1.212200 1.406811 1.687165 2.110226 2.796009 4.253663
2026-04-19 1.037946 1.188603 1.381540 1.660543 2.083965 2.776582 4.275242
2026-04-26 1.023571 1.174496 1.368679 1.651300 2.084394 2.803987 4.410715
2026-05-03 1.008871 1.159638 1.354403 1.639470 2.080050 2.822334 4.528024
2026-05-10 0.994609 1.145064 1.340148 1.627169 2.074298 2.837542 4.640694
2026-05-17 0.986665 1.138639 1.336797 1.630647 2.094000 2.901186 4.894848